Researchers developed a mannequin for a way COVID-19 transmission modifications below totally different circumstances after which put collectively a cool on-line interactive graphic that shows the quantity of threat of getting contaminated with SARS-CoV-2, and thus getting COVID-19. You possibly can change 15 settings to see how threat of transmission from the contaminated individual to the noninfected individual modifications in many alternative conditions.
The mannequin has limitations. You can’t change the viral load of the contaminated individual or the variant of the virus or the susceptibility of the uninfected individual. You can’t change vaccination standing of the contaminated or uninfected individual.
After taking part in with the software a bit, I’ve a number of tricks to share.
Tip: Simply altering a setting is sufficient to begin the brand new evaluation and present the distinction in threat transmission. This generally is a bit complicated if there may be little change between the primary setting and the newly chosen setting. There isn’t a must press “go” or “begin”.
A superb instance to see a giant distinction is about the exercise to “Coughing” with out altering every other settings.
“Reset graphic” restores the settings to the default, not begins the transmission below the chosen circumstances.
Tip: I initially missed that the colour of the uninfected individual modifications as an infection threat will increase. So, take note of each the flows of the purple pathways and the colour of the uninfected individual while you change a setting.
Tip: As you choose a change in safety, the blue line represents the barrier throughout the pathways of transmission that the safety supplies.
Tip: The little ‘i’ in a circle brings up a window that allow’s you examine how the data was decided, supplies a 5-star score of the standard of the proof, a sign of the arrogance of the consultants’ estimated values, and what elements contribute to the uncertainty within the estimates.
Highlighted Articles
Rutter H, Parker S, Stahl-Timmins W, Noakes C, Smyth A, Macbeth R et al. Visualising SARS-CoV-2 transmission routes and mitigations. BMJ 375 :e065312 (2021) doi:10.1136/bmj-2021-065312 [This one has the online tool.]
Freeman AL, Parker S, Noakes C, et al. Knowledgeable elicitation on the relative significance of attainable SARS-CoV-2 transmission routes and the effectiveness of mitigations. BMJ Open 11:e050869 (2021). doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-050869 [This one has the data used to develop the model that drives the tool.]
A direct hyperlink to the net software: https://www.bmj.com/content material/375/bmj-2021-065312/infographic
